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Matt Swartz has created a model to project salaries for arbitration eligible players, which weve been publishing at MLB Trade Rumors for 14 years. In the baseball industry, teams and agents determine arbitration salaries by identifying comparable players. To project the entire arbitration cla s in this way would take a ma sive amount of time and effort. So, Matt has developed an algorithm to project arbitration salaries that looks at the players playing time, position, role, and performance statistics while accounting for inflation. The performance of comparable players matters, but our system is not directly selecting individual comps for each individual player. As a disclaimer, it should be emphasized that our projections are not to be used as a scorecard for the agent and team on an individual player level. A player doing better or worse than our projection isnt indicative of anything. Our arbitration projections are created as a tool for our readers to get a general idea of a teams payroll situation. The service time figures included are not official. Also, there is not yet an established Super Two cutoff, which delineates which players with between two and three years of service qualify for early arbitration. That could lead to a few late entrants being added to the list. Its also worth noting that contracts signed prior to the non-tender deadline arent generally considered to be normal arbitration comparables; contracts signed prior to that deadline can be skewed by light offers that are presented to borderline non-tender candidates in take-it-or-leave-it fashion (with leave it, in such instances, being a non-tender). Thats not universal to all pre-tender deals but is frequently applicable. One other note: its increasingly common for teams to negotiate one-year deals with club options or mutual options covering an additional arbitration season. Weve noted all of the players who have an option for the 2025 season under the terms of a prior agreement. If the team buys out that option, the player does not become a free agent . He simply is paid whatever buyout (if any) was agreed upon under the terms of the prior agreement and heads back through the arbitration proce s again this winter. If you find MLBTRs arbitration projections useful, please consider . Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers received early acce s to these arbitration projections, and the subscription the best research tools you can get without actually working for an MLB team: our contract tracker, and our agency database. The projections: Angels (12) (5.075): $5.1MM (5.043): $5.8MM (4.164): $9.2MM (4.149): $5.9MM (4.046): $1.1MM (4.045): $1.2MM (4.022): $1.2MM (3 James Houston IV Jersey .108): $1MM (3.085): $2.1MM (3.038): $1.3MM (3.027): $1.8MM (2.159): $1.9MM Astros (10) (5.163): $17.8MM (5.079): $15.8MM (5.049): $3.75MM (4.162): $4.6MM (4.083): $1.875MM (4.022): $3.7MM (4.000): $3.3MM (3.044): $2.2MM (3.000): $4.4MM (2.169): $800K Athletics (5) (5.150): $1.7MM (5.053): $2.8MM (4.096): $3.8MM (3.059): $5.1MM (2.162): $1MM Blue Jays (10) (5.157): $29.6MM (5.059): $3.2MM (5.051): $7.75MM (5.011): $2.5MM (4.144): $1.9MM (4.128): $7.7MM (4.047): $4.1MM (3.063): $2.4MM (2.171): $1MM (2.168): $1.7MM Braves (6) (5.159): $6.1MM (5.110): $4.3MM (3.117): $825K (2.169): $2.3MM (2.150): $1.2MM (2.140): $800K Brewers (10) (5.068): $2.7MM (5.058): $8MM (5.056): $7.7MM (Brewers hold $10.5MM club option/$250K buyout) (4.084): $2.3MM (4.036): $1.5MM (4.027): $2.8MM (3.159): $1.8MM (3.112): $7.6MM (3.022): $900K (3.002): $2MM Cardinals (6) (5.105): $6.9MM (4.045): $1.9MM (3.145): $1.5MM (3.076): $2.5MM (3.000): $3.6MM (2.145): $2.3MM Cubs (14) (5.143): $2.2MM (5.023): $2.5MM (4.143): $2.9MM (4.109): $1.3MM (4.087): $1.9MM (4.058): $3MM (4.050): $2.3MM (4.049): $1.4MM (4.005): $1.4MM (3.160): $6.9MM (3.143): $6.4MM (3.069): $900K (3.063): $800K (3.006): $1MM Diamondback s (8) (5.100): $14.1MM (4.124): $2.6MM (4.095): $2.9MM (4.033): $2.3MM (4.029): $1.6MM (3.076): $800K (3.015): $2.1MM (3.015): $1.6MM Dodgers (9) (5.059): $2.135MM (5.041): $5.2MM (4.167): $2.7MM (4.152): $5.4MM (4.136): $6.2MM (4.114): $2.7MM (4.078): $1.9MM (3.139): $800K (3.135): $1.1MM Giants (4) (5.128): $9.5MM (5.035): $4.7MM (5.034): $5.5MM (3.071): $4.6MM Guardians (9) (5.127): $12MM (5.014): $8.3MM (4.099): $1.9MM (4.002): $2.4MM (3.157): $1.4MM (3.157): $1.6MM (3.091): $1MM (3.000): $4.3MM (2.133): $3.2MM Marlins (6) (4.165): $6MM (3.153): $1.4MM (3.118): $3.2MM (2.168): $1.8MM (2.149): $1.6MM (2.147): $2.2MM Mariners (12) (5.115): $2.2MM (5.101): $1.7MM (5.014): $5MM (4.148): $2.1MM (4.129): $11.7MM (4.126): $4.3MM (4.036): $900K (3.144): $8.1MM (3.112): $1MM (3.085): $5.6MM (2.172): $900K (2.151): $5.5MM Mets (8) (5.112): $1.8MM (5.018): $4.4MM (4.105): $1.1MM (4.093): $2.9MM (4.089): $4.4MM (4.085): $1.4MM (3.144): $1.7MM (3.133): $900K (3.031): $2.1MM Nationals (9) (5.127): $1.9MM (5.081): $3MM (5.007): $1.8MM (5.000): $8.6MM (3.142): $4.8MM (3.075): $1.4MM (3.046): $800K (3.005): $1.1MM (3.000): $3.5MM Orioles (15) (5.102): $5.6MM (5.078): $8.7MM (5.000): $3.2MM (4.137): $1.3MM (4.105): $6.6MM (4.085): $2.1MM (Orioles hold $2.2MM club option) (4.083): $1.4MM (4.075): $2.8MM (4.046): $1.7MM (4.025): $3.1MM (3.132): $2.1MM (3.112): $3.5MM (3.026): $1.4MM (3.000): $5.8MM (2.160): $2.1MM Padres (8) (5.121): $14.6MM (5.089): $13.7MM (5.058): $900K (5.004): $7.9MM (4.140): $1.8MM (4.132): $5.3MM (3.061): $800K (2.144): $1.7MM Phillies (9) (5.112): $8.9MM (5.057): $6.4MM (4.148): $1.2MM (4.140): $2.5MM (4.120): $1.2MM (4.106): $8.1MM (4.021): $1.1MM (3.078): $3MM (3.000): $3.5MM Pirates (9) (4.126): $1.8MM (4.076): $6.6MM (3.165): $1MM (3.136): $3.2MM (3.079): $1.5MM (3.056): $4MM (3.020): $1.8MM (2.144): $1.4MM (2.138): $2.8MM Ranger s (5) (4.145): $10.7MM (4.097): $4.8MM (4.078): $4.4MM (4.055): $1.3MM (3.124): $4.3MM Rays (12) (5.114): $3.4MM (5.043): $4.8MM (5.011): $2.8MM (4.111): $2MM (4.104): $2.7MM (4.031): $1MM (3.092): $1.3MM (3.060): $1.4MM (3.043): $1.1MM (3.015): $2.3MM (3.008): $900K (2.158): $1.9MM Red Sox (3) (3.100): $4.5MM (2.155): $4.9MM (2.136): $3.5MM Reds (10) (5.089): $8.6MM (5.000): $1.1MM (4.149): 4MM (4.097): $3.3MM (4.056): $5.2MM (4.017): $1.4MM (3.077): $800K (3.075): $1.1MM (3.000): $4.2MM (3.000): $2.2MM Rockies (10) (5.141): $2.3MM (5.132): $9MM (5.111): $5.6MM (5.075): $5.5MM (5.071): $1.8MM (4.083): $1.5MM (4.023): $1.7MM (3.148): $900K (2.167): $1MM (2.143): $2.6MM Royals (10) (5.121): $1.1MM (5.047): $3.9MM (4.156): $8.8MM (4.135): $2.8MM (4.062): $1.8MM (4.027): $2MM (3.099): $1.2MM (3.043): $1.7MM (2.153): $2.5MM (2.136): 1.1MM Tigers (11) (4.114): $8MM (4.111): $2MM (Tigers hold $3.1MM club option/$10K buyout) (4.040): $2.5MM (3.100): $1.4MM (3.099): $1.3MM (3.033): $3.5MM (3.026): $3MM (3.003): $1.6MM (3.003): $1.3MM (2.170): $1.5MM (2.134): $1.3MM Twins (13) (5.017): $6.2MM (4.165): $1.7MM (Twins hold $1.5MM club option/$55K buyout) (4.089): $4.7MM (4.074): $1.5MM (4.044): $1.3MM (3.141): $1.8MM (3.093): $4.3MM (3.093): $800K (3.091): $2.6MM (3.033): $3.8MM (3.009): $2.1MM (3.000): $3.7MM (2.142): $2.3MM White Sox (9) (5.139): $5.1MM (4.093): $900K (4.028): $2.9MM (4.015): $1.7MM (4.000): $6.4MM (3.122): $1.1MM (3.108): $1.2MM (3.076): $2.6MM (3.000): $1MM Yankees (10) (5.168): $3.8MM (5.129): $4MM (5.094): $7.7MM (5.063): $3.4MM (5.060): $5.7MM (5.000): $2.275MM (4.075): $6.9MM (4.031): $2.1MM (3.148): $3.5MM (2.156): $900K C.J. McWilliams Jersey |
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